And We're Back...

Its been awhile, so hopefully people still read this occasionally. 

Baseball postseason awards are coming out, and Seattle's Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young Award.  He led the AL (or was top 2 or 3) in most pitching categories.  He did have a 13-12 record.  He also had a 2.27 ERA and the Mariners had a record of 61-101.  Simply put:  the Mariners were bad (Pittsburgh Pirate bad), and Felix Hernandez was good (Cy Young good).

To help illustrate how bad they were, Ichiro Suzuki was on base 249 times with an OBP of .359.  It was a little low by his standards, but usually a player getting on base that many times in a season will score at least 100 times that season.  He only scored 74 times-- His Mariner teammates left him stranded about 70% of the time.

Hernandez' stellar numbers should have led to more wins, but the bad Mariner offense (and relief pitching) did not help him.  He won the Cy Young by a large margin, but old crusty baseball writers can't get past the W-L record.

I can understand the argument of pressure affecting a pitcher, and how a pitcher on a bad team can avoid a lot of attention - pitching without the bright spotlight on him.  However, arguing that W-L record is the primary stat of a pitcher's quality is antiquated and really useless.  And some antiquated writers decided to make this argument. 

Despite the Win being based on the hitting of teammates, relief pitching and sometimes just luck, Murray Chass can't accept this.  He talked with the Tribune's resident crusty baseball man Phil Rogers here.  Phil felt intimidated by all those bully numbers Geeks and their facts and arguments.  Murray Chass' own thoughts are here.

Here's a song for King Felix.  Both articles after the video.  Thanks for stopping by again.



Setting The Record Straight
by Murray Chass
Nov. 21, 2010

(Under the The Minority Speaks header.  3 sections down)

 
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune voted for Price because, he said, Hernandez’s 13 wins didn’t merit the award and Price was a dominant pitcher in his own right.
Speaking of the one-sided outcome of the vote, Rogers added, “I wonder how much of it was bullying on the Internet. There were a lot of columns written in September saying no one should be stupid enough not to vote for Felix. Maybe that’s what happened, but I hope not.”

All those Internet bullies-- forcing long time sports writers to read their columns and intimidate them into voting for Hernandez.  Who will protect these delicate, feeble minded writers from all these organized facts and stats and opinions?



Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun noted that the difference between the leaders in wins last year was three (Zack Greene 16, Hernandez 19) and this year was eight (Hernandez 13, Sabathia 21.)
“I asked a bunch of players on both teams I saw the last weekend of the season and it came out 9-1 or 10-1 for CC,” Elliott said.

Wait, how have I not read this scientific poll before?  I mean, there's a bunch.  or 10.  or eleven.  or Bob Elliott pulled numbers out of his ass.  There's no real way to know for sure.  But if the CC-Feliz ratio is that overwhelming and there's no representation of the question asked or who he talked to, and apparently no written record of the results, then it must be fact.  


All right, that was fun.  Like stretching before a run. Hopefully I won't be sore tomorrow-- On to article 2 (I apologize for the length).

THE DARK SIDE TO OVERTAKE CY YOUNG AWARD

By Murray Chass

November 17, 2010

 The standard for wins by an American League pitcher was lowered to 16 last year. It is about to be lowered even further – to 13. That’s the number of games Felix Hernandez won this past season, and I expect he will be announced Thursday as the A.L. Cy Young award winner. 

Here's his thesis:  the main way to judge pitchers is by wins.  And the numbers are getting too low for him to feel comfortable.  Hopefully he'll acknowledge other stats then completely disregard them...


The Seattle right-hander had the league’s lowest earned run average, 2.27; the lowest opposing batting average, .212; the most innings pitched, 249 1/3, and missed by two of having the most strikeouts (232). What he didn’t have was wins. When he won his last start of the season, he finished above .500 at 13-12.

To Clarify- Categories Hernandez led the league in or was top 2:
ERA
Opponents BA
Innings Pitched
Strikeouts

Category (singular) that he didn't lead:
Wins

So obviously, there's absolutely no argument to be made for Hernandez.  Unless you pay attention to the stats the he had the most control over...

The development, I believe, is directly related to the growing influence of the new-fangled statistics which readers of this site know I have no use for, a fact that sends stats-freak denizens of the blogosphere into a stats-freak frenzy.

You just listed the stats-- apparently ERA, OBA, Innings pitched and strikeouts are "new-fangled statistics."  You know, the ones those Ivy league math nerds created using supercomputers, auditoriums full of servers, confusing algorithms, thick glasses, and stacks upon stacks of punch cards.  That or they're stats that can be figured out by a sixth grader with a solar calculator and a piece of scrap paper.


“Look out, he’s at it again” the cry will go out, as if a carrier of the black plague were loose in the land. And a flood of e-mail messages will pour in to my inbox calling me vile names (they are only the best educated and articulate of responders) and telling me I don’t know what I’m talking about.

Don't forget snarky jackasses on poorly maintained, seldom updated blogs.


Besides his otherwise impressive statistics, the best argument Hernandez has going for him is his lack of run support. Elias Sports Bureau says the Mariners’ 3.06 runs per Hernandez start was the A.L.’s lowest. The Mariners say in Hernandez’s 12 losses, the team scored a total of seven runs while he was in the game.


It is a good case. That whole "worst run support in the AL" thing might be a factor in wins.  And the 7 runs in 12 losses-- that's tough to win games.  If, being generous, those runs were spread out across 7 games, that's five games he didn't have a chance to win because his team didn't score.  Congratulations, you've successfully argued the Win is a bad stat for Cy Young.  A pitcher can marred by a terrible team.  Nice debating.  Please stop writing. 

I accept that those figures represent terrible run support and would make it difficult for any pitcher to win. But not impossible. I have long believed that good pitchers find a way to win. 

C'mon!  You just proved at least 5 of his starts were impossible to win.  7 other starts probably would've required shutouts.  How can you find a way to win if your team doesn't score runs?  

Two Examples: 

Steve Carlton compiled a 27-10 record in 1972 for a Phillies team that otherwise had a 32-87 record. Carlton led the league with a 1.97 e.r.a., 30 complete games, 310 strikeouts and 346 1/3 innings pitched.

Murry Dickson was a 20-game winner for one of the most inept teams in history, the 1951 Pirates, whose 64-90 record belied their level of talent. The only reason they didn’t finish last was Dickson’s 20 wins.

Both Carlton and Dickson had more run support than Hernandez, but both found ways to win in spite of the teams they played for.

So, all Hernandez has to do is go back in time (when closers didn't exist), complete thirty games and throw a little less than 2 season's worth of innings to get the win total you require?  And you make the point that both Carlton and Dickson had more run support.  You think, possibly, that their teams scoring more runs led to more victories.  I don't have exact numbers at hand, but I do believe that the team that scores more runs than the other team usually wins.  I will double check that, but I'd say this is true 100% of the time.  Also, that would be more runs than 7 runs in 12 games.  Thanks for arguing against yourself.

He then goes on to quote people saying that pitchers find ways to win.  But then offers no evidence besides those quotes.

Well, welcome back readers.  I'll try not to be so bad in updating.  And David Haugh needs to get mocked soon.